What changed
On October 27, 2026, RevenueCat published an analysis of 4,964 iOS/Android subscription apps from the 2025–26 holiday season. During Black Friday week, the median app with a detected promotion acquired 20% more new paying customers per day than its September 15–October 12 baseline, compared with 16% fewer for apps without detected promotions. Six-month revenue per Black Friday buyer was about 8% lower than for baseline buyers, but the larger cohort lifted sale-week revenue per acquisition day by 12% at the median participating app. Christmas-only offers showed no clear relative advantage. New Year offers correlated with a 14% increase in new payers, versus 4% fewer for apps without detected offers. Around half the Black Friday increase came from existing free users.
Why it matters
A small subscription app deciding whether to run a holiday discount needs to know whether discounted sign-ups translate into durable revenue rather than just a spike in conversions. This study adds cohort revenue, user-age and plan-mix context missing from simple sales anecdotes. It suggests testing offers against existing free users and measuring revenue over months, while warning that the detected-promotion cohort is self-selected and promotions may coincide with higher ad spend. It does not establish that discounts caused growth.
More buyers during Black Friday, but lower value per buyer
RevenueCat observed a +20% median change in daily new paying customers at apps with detected Black Friday offers versus -16% at apps without them, relative to each app's September–October baseline. Black Friday buyers generated roughly 8% less six-month revenue per customer than baseline buyers, but more buyers meant +12% six-month revenue per acquisition day for the median participating app. Across the broader November 10–December 14 window, the median with promotions was still 1% below baseline, illustrating how the sale-week peak can overstate a full campaign's result.
Existing free users are an overlooked acquisition source
About half of the average increase in Black Friday first-time paying customers came from people who installed more than three months earlier. Annual plans represented 49% of new purchases during the sale week versus 41% in the baseline. Annual renewal outcomes were not observable within the 180-day follow-up, so the long-term value of the discounted annual cohort remains unknown.
Christmas-only discounts were weaker than New Year
Apps with offers detected only at Christmas saw a 24% drop in daily new payers against baseline, similar to the 22% drop without detected offers. Apps with New Year offers saw +14% over the period versus -4% without offers, with stronger demand in Health & Fitness and Gaming. This is an association shaped by seasonal demand, not evidence that discounting itself produced the increase.
Methodology makes this useful, but not causal
The sample contains 4,964 apps with at least 30 new payers per week in the baseline. iOS and Android versions count separately. Offers were inferred from redemptions, sale-labelled products, price changes and holiday paywall text; unsuccessful promotions can be missed, biasing the detected-offer group toward winners. Revenue is net of refunds and before store commission, with 180-day follow-up. The analysis does not randomise apps, control all ad spending or observe annual renewals.